Deutsche Bank Has It Wrong: Apple TV Will Not Cannibalize a Good Chunk of the DVD Market

Why is it that every time a new means of distributing video content comes out, analysts always immediately predict that it will eat into the current way of doing things? From an article on Yahoo!, "Apple will cannibalize a good chunk of the U.S. $26-billion DVD player market in the next several years, according to Deutsche Bank. One of the primary drivers of this change will be the availability of YouTube content on Apple TV."

Seriously, this is just getting ridiculous. If you want to have the opinion that online video will eat into DVD sales, that's one thing. But to say the reason Apple TV will do so is because of the availability of user-generated content, well now you're not even comparing Apples to Apples. (no pun intended)

You can't compare content on YouTube with professionally produced content on DVDs. And you certainly can't compare downloading content to your computer and having to transfer it to a device connected to your TV with that of having a portable DVD disc with content. Even online video has not eaten into DVD sales and  online video on multiple devices has way more market share than Apple TV ever will. These analysts are just getting carried away.