Can We Stop Talking About 3D TVs Already? It's Nothing But Hype

I don't know about you, but I am so sick and tired of hearing about 3D TVs and all the hype that surrounds them. For a product that barely exists in the market, I'm seeing way too many articles, quotes and marketing fluff surveys talking about how the 3D industry is going to be this huge business. Sure, 3D TVs might be a big business 5+ years from now, but it won't have any series impact on the market in the meantime. In fact, most analysts who track the market predict that only between 30-40M 3D capable sets will be sold by 2014. That's a very small number and nothing to get excited about.

Of course, that's not stopping companies like Sony who make the sets to predict that by next year, there will be a 3D TV set "in every home", referencing a specific region in Europe, not the U.S. But even still, how can Sony possibly think this? Consumers aren't even buying $150 Blu-ray players in large volumes yet, but Sony and others think people will drop a few grand for a 3D set sometime in the next few years? Most 3DTV sets won't even be out until late 2010 and you're going to have to wear glasses at all times to see anything in 3D. And the sets that don't require glasses, Panasonic says it will be, "at least 10 years before the technology is advanced enough to provide a similarly robust 3D experience without glasses". Ten years? Remind me why I am suppose to be excited about 3D TVs today?

Even with all those facts and numbers, I continue to see more and more surveys, like this one, that say consumers want 3DTV content. Duh. Of course we want better viewing experiences, but none of these surveys ever seem to say what consumers are willing to pay to get it. Depending on which analyst report you look at, the penetration rate of HDTVs in the U.S. isn't even at 50%, but we're suppose to be excited over 3DTVs and what might happen five or more years from now? The SMPTE isn't even suppose to deliver a 3DTV standard until sometime in 2011, although other organizations like CEA are working on their own standards as well.

3D TVs look great at CES and in product demos, but they do not represent what the average consumer is going to purchase anytime soon. How many consumers who spent $1,500 to upgrade to an HDTV this year are then going to be willing to spend another $2,000 three years from now to get a 3D experience? That's not realistic. 3D TVs may be the "future" but that future is not anytime soon. Weren't Internet connected TVs suppose to be the future as well? No question they have a better shot at adoption, but even their sales projections are low, under 5M sold in the next three years.

I'm tired of the TV manufactures and content owners trying to convince us what the next kind of technology is that we want, what we should be excited about as consumers or what we should be buying. We are the consumer, we decide with our wallets what we want. If content owners and TV manufactures continue to make big bets on 3D TVs being adopted in the next few years, they are going to be really disappointed when they lose.

Comments

[Ben Drawbaugh]

I'm almost scared to ask, but what does excite you?

In one statement you acknowledge that only 50% of Americans own HDTVs and then in another you pretend those currently without, wouldn't want a 3D capable display.

The fact is that anyone who bought a TV in the last 3-5 years probably isn't going to buy a 3DTV next year -- unless they just love to be on the cutting edge -- but TVs are more like computers then they were for our parents, people will replace them before they break because the newer ones are just that much better (resolution, contrast, color, refresh, 3D).

But creating a new technology and product isn't always about selling one to everyone and even if only 5% of the country wants it, then that is something to get excited about.

Personally I won't buy one until there are 3D broadcasts for football and while it looks like Sky might bring 3D soccer to the UK next year, no provider in the US seems interested in stepping up anytime soon.

[Dan Rayburn]

I'm excited by HDTV and FiOS. And as someone who bought a new 50" plasma TV in the past year, there is no way I'm going to buy a new TV 3 years from now that requires me to have to always wear glasses, just to be able to see video in 3D.

I would disagree that if only 5% of consumers want them, that's not enough of a market for the TV manufactures to be successful.

[DC]

I myself just bought a 50" Plasma too - it's a beautiful (but pricey) Pioneer so I'm not eager to buy anything new at this point. I really don't see 3D TV's being a huge seller - it'd be much better if you could watch 3D Blu-Ray's via the PS3 or something.

What sort of Plasma did you buy, Dan?

[Dan Rayburn]

I got a Vizio. Love their entire line. Have bought 3 of them and I've never had a single problem, quality looks amazing with FiOS and they are always much cheaper than a Sony.

[John C]

Dan,

I haven't seen a 3D movie in about 20 years. You know why? I'm legally blind in one eye. I can't see 3D too well. So unless I can see 3D TV with one eye, I don't think I'll be buying a 3D TV.

I also haven't plunked down a ton of money on a new HD set. My 50" Rear Projection 1080P 4:3 set I bought in 2002 for $1800 works JUST FINE. But the real reason is I don' have HD cable service.. you know why, I can't/don't want to afford it.

You might think I'm a 65 year old fuddy-duddy. Nope, I'm a 18-35 white male, who earns $55-75k/year. Perfect Demographic for this stuff. Never the less, not every one on the planet cares about this stuff.

You're right Dan, who cares about 3D TV? Seems Disney does, cause every new movie they put out is in 3D now!

- John C

[John Cole]

Hi Everyone,

Thought I'd add I have actually seen these 3D TVs at Cebit in Germany last year (2009). They are truly spectacular and a milestone in the history of visual media.

Not only are the screens high definition, they display images in an amazing depth of 3D without the need for 3D glasses. There is a myth that you must be viewing directly in the centre of the screen for the 3D effect to work. This is not true. I could see the 3D effect from a wide viewing angle however not from every angle. Basically as you moved around the screen the 3D effect would come in to focus and go out of focus every few degrees or so. In other words you could still see the 3D effect from most seating positions around a normal living area.

Hope this casts some light on this topic. Personally I can't wait for the screens to be released and of course movies and T.V. shows to follow. The sooner they come out the sooner higher producion volumes and price reductions. At which point I'll be jumping in to purchase and replace my current HD LCD.

John Cole

[reader]

read this moron who wrote the article
http://www.cnn.com/2010/TECH/01/06/toshiba.3d.tv/index.html

[San Diego]

I agree, total waste of money. I saw Avatar in 3D IMAX, that was awesome but 3D at home will not match up for decades. Technology is not focused yet.

[3d hd tv guy]

At the rate that technology advances I wouldn't be surprised if something revolutionary is just around the corner for 3d tv. But right now, it seems to be just a novelty item. The massive sales will only come when they can effectively do away with the 3d glasses.

[3d hd tv guy]

I just watched some videos about a 3d conference held HP. they seem to be embracing 3d technology maybe some of that PC know how will translate to 3d tv someday.

http://www.squidoo.com/samsung-3d-review-discover-eye-popping-hd-3d-tv

[TVS]

I dont agree with you on this. 3D will be big. Look at the success of Avatar at the cinema. Alot of people arent buying TVs right now because they are waiting for the price of 3D Tvs to come down.

[Mike TV]

The future of 3D tv is very bright, it will change the tv industry forever.

[3D TV]

3D TVs are great! You should try to watch a movie or a football game like this and see how engaging it is.

[XBR]

I think that Technology is not focused yet and therefore it must be seen in the cinema.

[s]

Im loving the hype about the 3D TV's. I really want to get one but theres no point yet untill theres more 3D Channels out. I got my eye on a few but will decide in the new year.

[3d tv]

How can you say this. Admitedly, 3D TV is gonna make a slow start because the technology isn't quite at the stage that will make consumers payout a large amount of money to replace their current TV. However, if you've been fortunate enough to see a demonstration of these 3d tvs you'd be in no doubt that there is a definite future for this new technology.