Thursday, November 20, 2008

Mobile Carriers and Content Owners Won't Give Out Usage Data On Mobile Video

For all the talk by the major mobile carriers and content owners of how "successful" their mobile video offerings are, none of them that I speak to are willing to give out any usage data that we can use to truly judge their "success". Last week, I asked Sprint for any data pertaining to the full-length NFL games they have started broadcasting to handsets but was told they didn't have any data to share, primarily because they don't want to tip off the competition.

MediaFLO, who's service is offered in a partnership with AT&T and Verizon, won't say how many users it has for the service. And Verizon, which in September added more full-length shows to their VCast offering, won't say how many users they have, how many hours of content has been viewed or even how many pieces of content have been consumed.

Of course that has not stopped any of the carriers from proclaiming their services as being, and I quote, "widely successful, "having tremendous growth" and giving out completely generic and useless data like "viewership increased by 100%". And while I have seen some research reports state the size of the mobile video market in the U.S. and what it is expected to grow to in the future, I can't seem to get research houses to say where those numbers come from. What is the data behind these projections? Is there any or is it a complete guess?

I am constantly being pitched by various carriers in the space who want the media to talk about how "successful" their mobile video offerings are, yet they give us no data at all to make their case. How are we suppose to talk about their video offerings in the market when we have no usage data, penetration rates, consumption numbers, and trending statistics? So why won't the mobile carriers release more data on mobile video usage? I can only guess it is because the numbers are so small they feel that releasing them will look like their offering is a failure. But we have to start somewhere, we need data to build off of. Has anyone seen any of the major carriers release any data like this to the industry? If so, I'd love to see where you found it.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

MLB.com's Switch To Flash Video Leaves More Questions Than Answers

Mlb-logo Adobe got a big customer win this week when they announced that MLB.com would move from the Silverlight platform back to Flash for all their live and on-demand video. The two-year deal, which kicks off in 2009, will also see MLB providing a rich Internet application (RIA) built using Adobe AIR that will give viewers access for yet to be announced features outside of a browser. The new rich Internet application will not replace the current MLB TV Mosaic app and will be a completely new piece of software.

While there has been some speculation that Adobe may be providing MLB.com with some monetary incentive to switch back to Flash, I doubt that is the case. While similar in nature to the NFL deal, the NFL is a very different organization and has a history of feeling others should pay to be associated with their brand. Major League Baseball's Advanced Media (MLBAM) division is all about making the online video experience as easy as possible and making sure they can incorporate other forms of content outside of just video into the overall user experience.

That being said, there are quite a few interesting questions one has to ask based on this new deal, which unfortunately MLB won't answer at this time. For starters, since the majority of content delivery networks still charge more to deliver Flash streaming over Silverlight, is MLB's cost to deliver video now going up? And if it does, will it have any real impact on the cost of MLB TV? Looking at the MLB.com website, I can't find any pricing yet for the MLB TV service in 2009. Also, since the Flash Media Server can't scale as well as Windows Media in a live environment, I think a real possibility exists that MLB could move to a dual-vendor strategy for their video delivery. While Akamai has all of MLB.com's video business today, I would not be surprised if over time, some of MLB's traffic was split between Akamai and another provider.

I also wonder how moving back to Flash affects MLB's mobile based offering? Flash video does not work on many mobile devices like Blackberry's and the mobile market is one that is very important to MLB. And when it comes to DRM, Adobe has only just recently started providing a DRM solution in the market; hence folks like Netflix and others going with Silverlight, especially for Mac users. Does the new Flash DRM now restrict MLB.com in any way for videos that are purchased and downloaded to the desktop? I'm also interested in hearing if MLB.com will use On2 or H.264 for the encoding, or a combination of the two.

My initial thought is that since MLB.com has already worked with the Flash video platform in the past that a lot of this has already been worked out. But since it will have been almost a year and a half since they were offering MLB TV in Flash, quite a lot has changed with the platform. The one thing that I hope this has no impact on is the time is takes MLB.com to turn around highlights and video clips. For this past season, I was seeing Mets highlights from games in as quickly as ten minutes after they happened.

In my eyes, MLB.com has always been the leader when it comes to providing fans with a really good quality user experience actually worth paying for. I hope their switch to Flash video doesn't change any of that experience for all the various ways that fans are able to get video.

[Thanks to Beet.tv for the heads up when the news broke]

Monday, September 15, 2008

Market Overview For Video Transcoding Services

When it comes to delivering online video, content owners continue to need more services than just pushing bits across a network. The real struggle moving forward is trying to solve the entire ecosystem of video creation, ingestion, transcoding, management, storage, distribution and tracking. Not to mention all of the other sub-categories of management like authentication, meta data, business rules, etc.

The question I often get asked is who's in the transcoding market and what segments of the market are they going after? In a recent conversation I had with Ripcode, they shared with me one of their slides that breaks out the different vendors in the market and the segments or verticals each vendor is going after. While I am sure there are a few more vendors that could be listed, especially for mobile transcoding, the slide does a good job of capturing who's in the market today and what they are focusing on.

Transcoding_4

While transcoding is a small market today, it's only going to grow larger as more content owners place more videos online, in more formats, for more devices. Over time, transcoding is going to become a mainstay functionality of the CDNs and we are already beginning to see more content delivery networks think about the ecosystem for video, including transcoding. In addition, some content owners have the ability and resources to do their own transcoding and for some, it makes sense to keep it in-house. The transcoding solutions on the market today are a lot cheaper and more efficient than they were three or four years ago and provide the ability to turn around videos very quickly for content owners who have the internal manpower.

Last year, Frost & Sullivan released a report entitled "Video Encoders and Transcoder Market" which contains a slide that shows the revenue forecasts and growth rate for 2005-2014.

Transcodingmarket_2

The Frost & Sullivan report details that over the next few years, while the size of the transcoding and video encoder market continues to grow, it will so do at a slower rate, due to competition driving prices down and product saturation down the road. They still have the market growing but at decreasing rates as digitization becomes well established globally over the forecast period.

While transcoding is not a service you hear many people talking about in the industry, it is a topic that you hear raised quite often when speaking to a large number of customers. Over time, transcoding should become a technology that is built into the network layer of content delivery and hopefully will be seen less as a stand-alone product offering. The key thing to remember is that if content owners can't get their video into the right format, for the right device, they content can't be delivered.

 

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Last100.com: Motorola Launches Movie Store For Cellphones

Images Last week, Motorola announced it had launched a full-length movie store for its mobile phones. God know who's going to want to watch a full-length movie on their cell phone, but that does not seem to be stopping the carriers and content owners from trying the long-from approach. Last100.com has an article with all the details on the list of titles available, cost of the service and limitations of the technology.

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Mobile Video Pricing Challenges: Part II

Following up on part I of my post about mobile video pricing challenges, I asked many content owners what the typical prices are for ingesting big content for delivery to little screens, i.e., many formats in, one or two formats out in lesser quality form? How much are they paying and what percentage of the overall cost of mobile video came from transcoding?

Of all the major content owners I spoke to, none of them really knew an answer. Most content creators are using automated solutions from FlipFactory or Sorenson Media to rip derivatives so it was hard for them to know. Also in some cases like at ESPN the carrier picks up that cost, not the content creator. I've quickly found that there is no real industry "standard" for this and the business models vary greatly. Some only do the encoding, others do hosting, others try to do a end-to-end solution. The trend I heard most is that it seems to be going towards end-to-end managed services just because of the complexity.

However, the efficiency on content delivery is important when wireless data access becomes more ubiquitous. We are still dealing with a low percentage of mass market users accessing wireless data in general. This percentage will increase as bandwidth increases and wireless solutions actually give an end user a compelling reason to use it beyond email and web browsing. That application has yet to be found. I don't doubt that there will be an application or a solution that will stress the wireless network, but this will create opportunities to architect a client/server solution to be more efficient which is what most are doing with their technology today. You can also see this now with Sling Media (unicast) and MobiTV (multicast).  These client/server solutions throttle data rates to address network throughput, which is a start, but by no means a total solution.

I also asked content creators how they would respond to a much-simplified pricing model of say 2 cents per minute delivered, regardless of bandwidth? Overall consensus was this would not work, but it depends on the region. The U.S. is all you can eat. Carriers have drilled this concept into the social consciousness of the US consumer. Wireless access is no different. The hotel or airport paid access model where you buy minute/hourly access to wireless is an interim solution to a longer term ubiquitous access to wireless all you can eat usage. Europe may continue its pay as you go or pay per MB for some years to come. I am hearing rumblings that the all you can eat model for home Internet access is changing, but wireless is still an issue with wireless plans not cross country accessible. There are carriers that are attempting to shape a new model, such as "3" in Europe. 3 has shown that it is willing to work with Sling Media and embrace the solution rather than fight them, like others are doing here in the States.

Also, models that adjust Gbps to cpm or pay per minute have not taken off. Most people adjust those number back to Gbps and compare those numbers. The contracts that go along with cpm or per minute pricing are very non standard and have issues making their way past legal. For example A CDN needs to say video encoding rates can not exceed 300kbps. No one wants a clause like this. Is there a similar model out there now? Movies are by ticket. TV is by monthly subscription. iTunes is pay per unit. On Demand is pay per play. Maybe an "EZ-Pass" model might work where you prepay a debit account that slowly depletes but that would be a big shift.

Another question I asked content creators was, are encoding/ingesting costs smaller, larger, or similar to delivery costs? From a mobile perspective, where the actual quantity of bits delivered can be quite small compared to the size of the original asset. This was the only question where everyone agreed on the same answer. Today the encoding/ingestion cost is much bigger because you need to support a lot of handsets, however it should be lower. Once you get to more than a couple of formats, most content owners invest in encoding automation. Formats add storage costs and at least 200k worth of encoding hardware. Delivery is always a much larger cost and sites with no traffic and lots of content are the exception but those tend to go out of business. The costs should be lower due to smaller file size but that is only if the format is a standard format. Most encoding systems have a high sunk cost and then maintenance can be spread across formats. Licensing encoders can raise costs. Farming out encoding should be by size as long as the encoder has the format licenses. But it also depends on the content. For wallpapers and JPGs it is really small. For ringtones is can be small as well, since many carriers limit the payload to a few hundred kilobytes since they deliver this via WAP sites or WAP push or MMS. There are few mobile devices, like Treos, that allow for a full browser to access the Internet and download anything. If video can get to the point where ringtones and wallpaper is from a delivery standpoint, then it can be successful with low production costs.

For my final question to the content owners, I asked if mobile delivery commands a premium due to the more difficult nature of reaching the end user? This was an interesting question. Some of the CDN providers said yes, we charge 10x more for mobile delivery that Internet video delivery which was not a surprise, since most CDNs are not setup to truly deliver mobile video. But on the other hand, the content owners said it should not cost more to deliver video to mobile and that perception is what the carriers want you to believe. Content owners are not buying it.

Some content owners we're not really sure either way and said that from one perspective this could be right. But there is also content you get access to that you do not get on the Internet and there is also specific content that you get just for mobile use i.e. based on the usage patterns and that you want to get breaking news and info based on presence that a mobile phone/device is well suited for. I think going forward you will see more "premium" content on wireless terminals and specific services that will you will pay a premium for just because it is easier for the content providers to control the deliver as compared to the Internet so they are more compelled to build a "wireless" service.

My take from all I spoke to is that I think it commands a premium now, since the wireless network is not leveraged across as many users. As an alternate example, the cable operator (Comcast) infrastructure can leverage VoIP, On Demand, basic cable, and Internet access. That is a good use of an ongoing cost infrastructure that needs to be updated over time. The wireless infrastructure is unique that it requires broader reach of connectivity and roaming with a consistent bandwidth. Therefore wireless carriers have to provide a broad infrastructure for each customer, rather than a unique home access to each customer with respect to cable operators. However, if you look at the current all you can eat wireless plans from Sprint, the $15/mo is not that bad for EVDO, since they don't price differently for 1xRTT or EVDO, it is still $15/mo. That may change, but it is not bad for ~300kbps on a wireless network. However, I get ~20Mbps on my Verizon FiOS for $49/mo. The price is still pretty high for mass market adoption, but for that bandwidth I can do a lot, if it was offered.

The more I speak to content owners about their mobile video offerings, the more I realize that there is just so little being done today. When I asked the major content owners what percentage of their inventory is available for mobile or how many videos/streams they are delivering to mobile today, none of them knew or would answer. And I got the sense that they were not trying to hold back the data, but more that they really just did not know, which means that today, it's not a big part of their business.

On the CDN front, all of the ones I spoke to said that today, mobile video delivery does not take up even 1% of their business from a revenue or bits perspective. When content owners don't see much traction, and CDNs don't see much business, it's clear that mobile video adoption in the U.S. has not changed much in the past few years. Video to mobile has so many business and technology hurdles to get through that you have to really wonder if it will ever get off the ground in the states in any truly mass-market adoption.

While there were just too many to name and quote, many CDNs, major content owners and mobile video vendors contributed to the information in this post.

Monday, June 09, 2008

Mobile Video Pricing Challenges: Part I

Today, thanks to numerous business and technology issues, mobile video adoption in the U.S. is still a long way off. The more content owners I speak to, the more I find they don't have much insight into what can be done today, what platforms exist and how anyone is ever going to make money from video to mobile. Vendor solutions in the market are quite fragmented and most vendors sell to carriers and ISPs and not directly to content owners. Traditional CDN vendors don't offer mobile video delivery services today and some question whether they ever can. That could be debated on both sides, but the bottom line is that right now, content owners don't have many places to go to for delivering content for mobile.

While there are a host of vendors in the market, some of them are only working to solve the transcoding needs, others are working on the entire mobile platform. Companies like ByteMobile, Mobixell, Ortiva Wireless, ROK Mobile, RubberDuck Media Lab, Thin Multimedia, Transpera, uVuMobile, Vantrix, Vidiator, Volantis and others are all in the market, yet it is extremely hard to figure out what they offer, who they sell it to and how much business they really have. And those that do have customers, the vast majority of them seem to be outside the U.S.

Over the past few months, I've been talking to a lot of major content owners, CDNs and mobile video vendors to get a sense of the biggest technology and business problems they face. In terms of usage, not cost of delivery, many think mobile video is still really just a press release put out for marketing purposes. The hype is that mobile gives operators some what of a walled garden and a way to monetize content, but is not being done in a way user will benefit. The portability is great, but after the adoption of the web, it will be hard to shackle down consumers on mobile.

The market breaks down into two many categories for delivery of video to a mobile device. Those being videos delivered in a walled garden and those downloaded and browsed on the public Internet. Last year, less than 2 million users had the combination of carrier/plan/handset to view video. That compares to PC based access of 180 million general Internet users that companies like Akamai see on a daily basis. Factor in that the frame rate and bit rates are a throw back to web 1.0 video and the bit delivery business for mobile is not big enough to track as a line of business. AOL for instance relies on partners like mobitv, Motricity and Helio to aggregate a large base of users and combine download and stream content offerings.

As far as the mobile video delivery pricing model, I found that there is no real benchmark. Most are usually pricing based on quantity like pay per clip or subscription for a service. The difference is that the wireless networks are like a "Private" network i.e. the carrier controls the network end to end so that affects the price structure. That being said, almost everyone I spoke to, including the delivery networks said that they have not heard of anyone breaking mobile streaming down in that much detail and comparing it with the broader Internet streaming. If you look at the major streaming sites, most of them rely on Flash streaming and Flash navigation. There are no devices, to date, that I know of, that access this content from a browser besides a Palm Treo 700p with Kinoma's retail Player 4 EX application which supports Flash streaming and access to YouTube through a built in content navigator. Bandwidth is still the costly item. Clearly the wireless data model is still in its infancy, which we all already know.

The mobile wireless model is very reminiscent of the early modem Internet days. I see a corollary between the telephone modem to cable broadband, and the transition between wireless mobile usage and faster wireless networks like EVDO and UMTS/HSDPA. I believe there will be carriers that will take a chance on being the "pipe" and others that will attempt to build an AOL type walled garden. As bandwidth increases, so do the end user applications, since access to content becomes more realistic. I think, as we see now with cable operators, a combining of billing and general access and bandwidth speed increases offered as a way to maintain the customer base will be the long term approach. There is the integration factor though. Uploading content, hosting it and managing it might require additional cost for the carrier but also for the content creator that needs to distribute to multiple carriers with different middleware.

It's also interesting to note that most of the delivery being done by the CDNs for mobile is downloads of ring tones, wallpaper and games, it's still not video. Also, all of the CDNs I asked either don't support mobile video today or simply do it from Helix or QuickTime servers. They have not invested any money really at all into the infrastructure and don't plan to do so until there is a real customer demand. Part of the problem is that no one seems to know what value the delivery of content adds in the overall mobile value chain. Most content owners I spoke to said that that 3-5% of dollars paid for content should go to delivery; ironically, mobile delivers fewer bits that are harder to get to the end terminal. Right now the deliver is extremely important because of the complexity of delivering a good end-to-end QoS over a wireless network compared to fixed networks like the Internet.

Also, ring tones pull the paid content revenue numbers way up. The amount of revenue from mobile vs Internet site varies by application. Sites like Surfline with real time surf updates do well on mobile. Casual games are growing fast. Atomic wedgie, a mobile video channel is trying original content and right now the revenue for paid video is so small that it is usually viewed as a trial or promotional by studios. It's no where near even a single digit percentage once ring tones are removed. That being said, it all depends on the middle man. If you can just put it on the open Internet so that broadband phones can find it, then the percentage is minimal. However, in order for mobile to get the best experience with video, content owners have to do deals with the carriers and that makes the percentage higher. You can see how delivery costs can get high when the operator controls the last mile and the end user experience.

Because of this, the carrier network is always a touchy subject with content owners I speak to since the carriers control access to their wireless network. They have the power to block certain applications or ports. They can bill for certain data and not for others if they want to. The combination Wi-Fi and carrier wireless network based products can avoid this, but if the content is on the carrier server, there is no getting around the wireless billing model or limited access rights. Mobile content can be smaller, but not all the time. For example, Palm says that the Treo based products have a full browser and can download huge files. For example, a user could download large video files from their PC via Avvenu.com onto their Treo700w device, but some carriers cap their bandwidth access per month. That's the kind of complexity users are dealing with in a fragmented market. Technology is still the hurdle, unlike streaming on the Internet.

Tomorrow in part two I'll discuss how content owners might respond to a much more simplified pricing model.

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

Pure Digital Announces It's New Flip Video Mino Camcorder

Flip Today, Pure Digital Technologies announced a newer, smaller version of the widely popular Flip Video camera. Called the Flip Video Mino, the unit comes in at 40% smaller than the original Flip and has rechargeable batteries. Retailing for $179.99, the new unit weighs just over three ounces and is being targeted primarily towards teenagers.

Unfortunately, the new Mino only has 2GB of on-board flash memory and captures up to 60 minutes of TV-quality video, which are the same specs as the original Flip. The Mino has new touch-sensitive buttons to record, fast forward, rewind, pause and delete and the new internal, rechargeable lithium ion battery recharges whenever the camcorder’s USB arm is connected to a computer and provides more than four hours of recording time on a single charge.

I'll have a review unit in a couple of days and will do a follow up post with some videos.

Thursday, May 08, 2008

Lifecasting: The New Broadcasting Platform

At the Streaming Media East show on Wednesday May 21st, community social media guru Chris Brogan will be leading a session entitled "Lifecasting: The New Broadcasting Platform". In the early days of television, live was the second choice, because of potential pitfalls, cost of production, and a host of other problems. And yet, in the world of Internet video, lifecasting—using Internet video to share moments of our lives or to broadcast personal events and happenings—is the new hot thing.

With platforms like Kyte.tv, Zannel, Mogulus, Stickcam, and many others now available, lots of new options and opportunities exist. Come see some of the hot and upcoming mobile lifecasting options in action and learn if lifecasting will become just a fad or the next big thing.

Confirmed speakers include:

  • Moderator: Chris Brogan, VP, Strategy and Technology, CrossTechMedia, co-founder, PodCamp
  • Scott Monty, Consigliere, crayon
  • Sarah Austin, Founder, Pop17.com
  • Brad Hunstable, Founder, Business Development, Ustream.tv

Have a topic or question for any of the speakers you want to see addressed? Submit it in the comments section and we'll add it to the Q&A portion of the session.

Registration is still open and you can see all the various pricing packages, including a one-day ticket on our website. Six years since we took over the StreamingMedia.com business and we've still managed to keep the conference very affordable for everyone to attend. A full two-day conference ticket is only $895.

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Learn How To Broadcast Over Mobile And Wi-Fi Networks

At the Streaming Media East show on Tuesday May 20th, Steve Garlfield will be leading a hands-on demonstration entitled "Live Broadcasting Over Mobile And Wi-Fi Networks".

While big media tests the waters of mobile broadcasting, many web video producers are already out there doing it live from the street, with a cell phone. Others are joining in and experimenting with two-way broadcasts via streaming video over cellphone networks and via Wi-Fi, wherever they are. Viewers can chat while the broadcast is going on and affect and sometimes even direct the content being produced. Come to this session to see Steve Garfield and other pioneers in the live broadcasting space show how its done.

Confirmed presenters include:

  • Steve Garfield, Mobile Video Journalist, SteveGarfield.com
  • Max Haot, Founder, CEO, Mogulus
  • Bhaskar Roy, Co-Founder, Qik.com

Registration is still open and you can see all the various pricing packages, including a one-day ticket on our website. Six years since we took over the StreamingMedia.com business and we've still managed to keep the conference very affordable for everyone to attend. A full two-day conference ticket is only $895.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Adobe CEO Says Flash Player For iPhone In The Works

Last night, The Wall Street Journal was the first to report that Adobe's CEO Shantanu Narayen said on a conference call with investors that Adobe is working on a Flash player for the iPhone and hopes to have it ready around June. Shantanu said that Adobe has been working on the new media player since the release of the iPhone SDK by Apple last month. While this is good to hear from Adobe, I think there still are a lot of unanswered questions about how Flash video may work on the iPhone and what if anything Apple may do to prevent this if they have their own agenda.


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Dan Rayburn: 917-523-4562 - danrayburn.com - e-mail
EVP, StreamingMedia.com, Principal Analyst, Frost & Sullivan


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